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Last week was fairly tame in NFL survivor pools, but experienced players know more big upsets are right around the corner. With several "obvious" picks in Week 3, it's fair to wonder if an underdog is about to bark and spoil the survivor hopes of a big chunk of your pool.In this post, we analyze the 2023 NFL Week 3 survivor pool picks that have emerged as the most popular pick options and discu s their pros and cons. Week 3 provides us with more apparent mismatches and bigger point spreads than we have seen in the first few weeks of the 2023 season, so more survivor pick alternatives are in play this week.This Riley Sutter Jersey analysis is brought to you by , the only site that harne ses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in NFL survivor pools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $5.7 million in survivor pool winnings using the site's customized picks and tools.Free Survivor Pool PicksBefore we dive into the analysis, PoolGenius has some special offers for Sporting News readers, including up to 55 percent off football subscriptions and a free all-acce s trial.EXPERT PICKS: FREE TRIAL: SEASON DISCOUNTS: The five teams below are the most popular NFL survivor picks of Week 3, according to the biggest survivor pool hosting sites. There's a good chance that you're probably considering at least one of them.In our pick analysis, we focus on three key data factors: win odds, pick popularity, and future value. The perfect Week 3 survivor pool pick has high win odds (i.e. it's a relatively safe pick), low pick popularity (because when an opponent picks a different team than you do, they can be eliminated while you advance), and low future value (i.e. they are pretty much usele s as a potential survivor Kody Clark Jersey pick in future weeks). No pick is perfect, and every week you need to balance tradeoffs between these three factors. Note: Pick Popularity numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers can shift over the week, so make sure to for the latest updates.Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago BearsPick Popularity: 21% (Most popular team)Point Spread: -13The Chiefs are currently the biggest favorite of Week 3, a week that features more teams with higher win odds than either of the first two weeks combined. That makes Kansas City the largest favorite of 2023 to date. Its 87-percent market win odds are also the highest we have seen so far.The Bears have not looked very good for two weeks now, and the Chiefs have, if anything, underperformed because of turnovers and miscues in their first two games. The Chiefs' pick popularity also isn't prohibitively high, so Kansas City is a solid value pick in survivor pools if you want to use them.The primary question is Kansas City's value as a future week survivor pick. The Chiefs, along with Dallas and San Francisco, rank at the top of the NFL in that category. They should be sizable favorites (though maybe not by 13 points) both next week at the Jets and in Week 6 vs. Denver, as well as in two later season matchups against the Raiders.WEEK 3 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS: | | | | | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston TexansPick Popularity:21%Point Spread: Brooks Orpik Jersey -9.5The Jaguars are probably as big of a favorite this week (-9.5 vs. Houston) as they will be all year. However, because there are three bigger Week 3 favorites and Jacksonville is a more popular survivor pick than Dallas or San Francisco (and about as popular as Kansas City), it's not a great risk-vs.-reward pick for Week 3. Using Jacksonville, though, could still be worth considering to save those other higher future-value teams.Jacksonville does have a couple of potential spots where it could be more valuable going forward. In Week 6 vs. Indianapolis, the Jaguars could be an alternative to the Rams or Dolphins, teams that project as being popular that week. In larger survivor pools that will last the full season, the Jags could be important late in Week 17 when they host Carolina, especially for entries that have already used Philadelphia, as the Eagles play Arizona that week.WEEK 3 DFS LINEUPS: | Dallas Cowboys at Arizona CardinalsPick Popularity: 19%Point Spread: -12Dallas, playing on the road at Arizona, is only slightly below Kansas City in Week 3 win odds and has similar value as a survivor pick at slightly lower popularity. The Cowboys also have a similar future value rating. So, the case for Dallas is similar John Carlson Jersey to Kansas City's.The future weeks when Dallas should have high survivor pick value are different, though, which could impact your decision based on your pool rules and size. Dallas' highest value spots look to be in the middle of the season, in Weeks 8 to 12.MORE POOLGENIUS: San Francisco 49ers vs. New York GiantsPick Popularity: 15%Point Spread: -10.5San Francisco joins Dallas and Kansas City as another double-digit favorite in Week 3, with a similar risk-vs.-reward profile to those two teams.The 49ers also have high future value, but again with a slightly different dynamic. San Francisco plays Arizona at home next week when it projects as a favorite of two touchdowns or so, and then it goes through a relatively tougher stretch of the season.From Week 11 onward, though, San Francisco projects as one of the biggest favorites in five different weeks. That means the 49ers are probably the most versatile and important team for the later season in bigger and/or multi-pick survivor pools.FREE POOLGENIUS TRIAL: Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis ColtsPick Popularity:7%Point Spread: -7.5Baltimore was the most popular survivor pick for Week 1, and the Ravens are back again as a Week 3 pick option. This is the highest remaining win odds spot for Baltimore based on our 2023 season projections even though the Ravens' point spread isn't as big as the more popular picks in Week 3. It just happens to be an extreme week with more favorites of over a touchdown than usual.Relative to the other survivor pick options, Baltimore has lower future value. Baltimore is also a le s popular pick than Jacksonville while having similar Week 3 win odds to the Jaguars. On balance, the Ravens look like a solid, if not spectacular, value pick for this week.Get our Week 3 survivor pick for your pool! Understanding the impacts of key data metrics like win odds, pick popularity, and future value is the key to winning more NFL survivor pools over the long term. However, those impacts can also vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool (e.g. its size and rules).As a result, it takes a lot of data, math, and time to figure out which Week 3 pick (or combination of picks, if you're playing multiple entries) will give you the biggest edge to win your 2023 survivor pool. That' Aaron Ness Jersey s why PoolGenius built the .It provides customized weekly pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting odds, and pick popularity trends. It calculated Expected Value and future value for every team. It tracks the picks you've already made and recommends how to split up your picks if you're playing multiple entries. It even includes a suite of tools to help you craft the smartest plan for your survivor picks in future weeks.Try it out using the links below, and good luck in your survivor pool(s) in Week 3!EXPERT PICKS: FREE TRIAL: SEASON DISCOUNTS:
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Опубликовано 2023-10-23 07:54:46
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